But the likelihood of needing residential care does increase as people get older and it is higher for women than men. With the number of people 80 years and over set to increase from 680,000 in 2004 to 2,600,000 in 2045, this foreshadows a massive increase in demand for aged-care services and for aged-care workers.

At the same time, the number of people with dementia will increase more than threefold in the next 50 years unless effective methods of prevention and treatment are found in the meantime.

Some 65 per cent of residents in aged-care homes are estimated to have some degree of dementia and dementia will progressively become the biggest disability driver of demand for aged-care services.

The Howard Government has conspicuously failed to plan for future aged-care needs and has allowed the resources of the sector to erode. A surplus of 3217 aged-care beds in 1996 became a shortfall of 2735 beds in December 2006.

The number of nurses working in aged care has declined by more than 10 per cent since 1996, while at the same time the number of residents in aged-care facilities has increased by around 13 per cent.

Community aged-care packages enable older people to have the choice of staying in their own homes for longer, but this means that when people are admitted to residential care they need high care services.

The increasing dependency of residents and the complexity of care required have a significant impact on staffing requirements. The key to high quality aged care is having adequate levels of skilled and qualified nursing staff who can respond to the care needs of individual residents.

Qualified staff are essential for the management of residents with complex health conditions and medication needs.

At the end of their lives our most vulnerable citizens need care and respect and dignity. But a comprehensive survey of the aged-care workforce in 2004 found that 40 per cent of nurses and 25per cent of allied health workers spend less than one-third of their time providing direct care, and only 13 per cent of nurses and 19 per cent of other care staff felt they have enough time to spend with each resident.

The workforce shortages in aged care have reached crisis point. It is aggravated by the growing differential in wages for nurses and personal care workers relative to what they could earn elsewhere and an increasing burden of red tape and paperwork.

A recent report, Residential aged care in Australia 2005-06, from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, highlights how poorly the aged-care needs of ACT residents are served.

The ACT has the lowest ratio of residential aged-care places as a percentage of the population aged 70 and over, with just 72.1 beds compared to the national average of 85.6 beds and the benchmark of 88 beds. Even when all aged-care places (residential and transition care, Community Aged Care Packages and Extended Aged Care at Home packages) are totalled, the ACT is worst served of all the states and territories.

Many families in the ACT will have a story to tell about their search for a suitable aged-care bed for their frail, elderly parent or relative. On any given night there are 17 people in Canberra hospitals who have been assessed as requiring residential aged care who are waiting for a bed.

These people's needs could be met if the 632 residential aged-care beds which have been allocated in the ACT but are not yet operational were quickly brought on-line. This would also save the hospital budget about $6million a year. Every other state has a similar story to tell.

The Federal Government's failure to adequately address aged-care needs has consequences and costs for the frail elderly, for their concerned families and for the health budgets of all the states and territories.

Dr Lesley Russell is a former policy adviser to the federal parliamentary Labor Party.

Article from http://canberra.yourguide.com.au